Actual result
R+1.0
Final polls said
D+3.1
11 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.9
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.9 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | D+1.4 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 6 | Minneapolis Star Tribune | D+3.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 7 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 8 | University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | D+6.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 9 | St. Cloud State University | D+9.0 | 10.0 | ✗ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2006-11-05 | 1027 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-04 | 710 | EVEN | 1 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2006-11-02 | 1027 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-11-01 | 500 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 501 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-28 | 625 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-25 | 500 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 715 | D+1.4 | 2 |
| University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | 2006-10-25 | 663 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-22 | 606 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| St. Cloud State University | 2006-10-21 | 504 | D+9.0 | 10 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | D+0.1 | 1 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2006-10-08 | 818 | D+9.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-04 | 500 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-26 | 616 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-19 | 625 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | 2006-09-15 | 1023 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2006-09-14 | 820 | EVEN | 1 |