Actual result
D+34.8
Final polls said
D+44.4
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+38.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | D+35.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+38.7 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+45.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Siena College | D+45.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Marist College | D+45.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Quinnipiac University | D+49.0 | 14.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | CBS News/The New York Times | D+50.0 | 15.2 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2006-11-01 | 1011 | D+45.0 | 10 |
| Siena College | 2006-10-31 | 500 | D+45.0 | 10 |
| Marist College | 2006-10-31 | 503 | D+45.0 | 10 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 952 | D+35.9 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2006-10-17 | 475 | D+51.0 | 16 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | D+38.1 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-13 | 1053 | D+49.0 | 14 |
| Siena College | 2006-10-11 | 620 | D+46.0 | 11 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-09-28 | 1263 | D+51.0 | 16 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2006-09-26 | 734 | D+50.0 | 15 |
| Siena College | 2006-09-13 | 625 | D+51.0 | 16 |