Actual result
D+23.9
Final polls said
D+21.8
11 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+17.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Village | D+23.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | CBS News/The New York Times | D+25.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | D+22.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+22.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+27.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Quinnipiac University | D+27.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+19.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+17.3 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyUSA | D+17.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Opinion Consultants | D+16.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics | D+13.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Columbus Dispatch | D+36.0 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 13 | Zogby Analytics | D+7.5 | 16.4 | ✓ |
Polls (24)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-04 | 436 | D+17.0 | 7 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2006-11-03 | 1008 | D+22.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+19.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 1003 | D+27.0 | 3 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2006-10-29 | 1541 | D+36.0 | 12 |
| Big Village | 2006-10-28 | 542 | D+23.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 678 | D+7.5 | 16 |
| Opinion Consultants | 2006-10-24 | 800 | D+16.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-24 | 563 | D+30.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-24 | 500 | D+22.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-19 | 625 | D+20.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | D+10.4 | 13 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2006-10-13 | 689 | D+25.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-12 | 901 | D+27.0 | 3 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2006-10-11 | 526 | D+14.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-10 | 515 | D+28.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-03 | 500 | D+12.0 | 12 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-26 | 625 | D+17.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-19 | 490 | D+21.0 | 3 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2006-09-15 | 1791 | D+19.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-09-14 | 876 | D+21.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-13 | 500 | D+19.0 | 5 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2006-09-12 | 639 | D+12.0 | 12 |
| University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics | 2006-09-09 | 477 | D+13.0 | 11 |