Actual result
D+20.7
Final polls said
D+21.6
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+17.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quinnipiac University | D+23.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+18.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+18.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+17.8 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+24.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Temple University Institute for Survey Research | D+24.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+25.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+25.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | West Chester University | D+25.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Zogby Analytics | D+13.2 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Pew Research Center | D+29.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
Polls (19)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+18.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 1005 | D+24.0 | 3 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2006-10-31 | 507 | D+25.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-28 | 500 | D+18.0 | 3 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2006-10-27 | 626 | D+25.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-26 | 933 | D+23.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 755 | D+13.2 | 8 |
| West Chester University | 2006-10-24 | 601 | D+25.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-20 | 625 | D+21.0 | 0 |
| Temple University Institute for Survey Research | 2006-10-20 | 698 | D+24.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-14 | 500 | D+17.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | D+7.0 | 14 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2006-10-05 | 511 | D+21.0 | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-24 | 625 | D+17.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-09-21 | 933 | D+16.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-20 | 500 | D+20.0 | 1 |
| Temple University Institute for Survey Research | 2006-09-17 | 666 | D+27.0 | 6 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2006-09-15 | 604 | D+18.0 | 3 |
| Pew Research Center | 2006-09-15 | 1201 | D+29.0 | 8 |