Actual result
R+9.2
Final polls said
R+12.2
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+14.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | R+8.2 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+11.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+14.9 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+16.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Blum & Weprin Associates | R+23.0 | 13.8 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-02 | 557 | R+16.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 1081 | R+8.2 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-24 | 500 | R+11.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-24 | 1003 | R+16.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-22 | 532 | R+10.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | R+11.3 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-09 | 500 | R+15.0 | 6 |
| Blum & Weprin Associates | 2006-09-30 | 828 | R+23.0 | 14 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-17 | 536 | R+12.0 | 3 |