Actual result
D+7.4
Final polls said
D+6.4
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abacus Associates | D+6.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+5.3 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Diversified Research Inc | D+5.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+10.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+4.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | University of Wisconsin Survey Center | D+12.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | D+13.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Zogby Analytics | R+0.5 | 7.9 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 502 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 845 | R+0.5 | 8 |
| University of Wisconsin Survey Center | 2006-10-22 | 266 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-18 | 500 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | 2006-10-13 | 400 | D+13.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | D+1.8 | 6 |
| Abacus Associates | 2006-10-11 | 708 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Diversified Research Inc | 2006-09-20 | 600 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-14 | 500 | D+3.0 | 4 |