Actual result
R+8.3
Final polls said
R+7.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+6.5 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | R+13.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | RT Strategies | R+2.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1037 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | 2006-10-21 | 497 | R+13.0 | 5 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | 2006-09-16 | 500 | R+13.0 | 5 |