Actual result
R+0.4
Final polls said
D+3.2
6 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.7
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+1.7 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+4.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | RT Strategies | D+8.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Zogby Analytics | D+9.0 | 9.4 | ✗ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-04 | 688 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-11-01 | 450 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2006-11-01 | 503 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-26 | 500 | D+9.0 | 9 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-10-23 | 450 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2006-10-18 | 168 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-14 | 470 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 442 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 500 | D+10.0 | 10 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2006-09-27 | 442 | EVEN | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-19 | 503 | R+5.0 | 5 |