Actual result
D+24.4
Final polls said
D+23.8
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+22.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+22.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | D+22.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+29.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+30.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Los Angeles Times | D+18.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+32.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Datamar Analytics | D+16.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datamar Analytics | 2006-11-03 | 692 | D+16.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-03 | 553 | D+29.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 1015 | D+32.0 | 8 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2006-10-27 | 795 | D+22.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-24 | 507 | D+26.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-23 | 877 | D+18.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-27 | 625 | D+30.0 | 6 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2006-09-25 | 989 | D+18.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-25 | 445 | D+20.0 | 4 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2006-09-19 | 679 | D+28.0 | 4 |
| Datamar Analytics | 2006-09-14 | 1879 | D+10.9 | 14 |