Actual result
D+15.7
Final polls said
D+13.4
11 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+16.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+16.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+15.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Lake Research Partners | D+18.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | EPIC-MRA | D+13.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Selzer & Co. | D+19.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+11.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyUSA | D+10.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+22.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Zogby Analytics | D+7.4 | 8.3 | ✓ |
Polls (20)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-03 | 687 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+16.0 | 0 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2006-11-01 | 532 | D+19.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 800 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2006-10-31 | 600 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2006-10-28 | 600 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 1081 | D+7.4 | 8 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2006-10-24 | 600 | D+12.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-23 | 803 | D+7.0 | 9 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2006-10-22 | 600 | D+18.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-22 | 500 | D+16.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | D+4.6 | 11 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2006-10-10 | 643 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-07 | 772 | D+11.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-04 | 500 | D+17.0 | 1 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2006-10-03 | 600 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | D+6.5 | 9 |
| Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 2006-09-17 | 600 | D+22.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-16 | 749 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2006-09-09 | 608 | D+19.0 | 3 |