Actual result
D+20.1
Final polls said
D+16.7
11 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minneapolis Star Tribune | D+21.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | D+22.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+18.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+16.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | St. Cloud State University | D+25.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+14.7 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+14.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+10.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+8.0 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Zogby Analytics | D+7.7 | 12.4 | ✓ |
Polls (20)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2006-11-05 | 1027 | D+21.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-04 | 710 | D+16.0 | 4 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2006-11-02 | 1027 | D+20.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-11-01 | 500 | D+14.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 501 | D+18.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-28 | 625 | D+10.0 | 10 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 679 | D+7.7 | 12 |
| University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | 2006-10-25 | 663 | D+22.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-25 | 500 | D+14.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-22 | 606 | D+16.0 | 4 |
| St. Cloud State University | 2006-10-21 | 504 | D+25.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | D+7.5 | 13 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2006-10-08 | 818 | D+21.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-04 | 500 | D+17.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-26 | 616 | D+8.0 | 12 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2006-09-24 | 600 | D+8.0 | 12 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | D+9.0 | 11 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-19 | 625 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | 2006-09-15 | 1023 | D+16.0 | 4 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2006-09-14 | 820 | D+24.0 | 4 |