Actual result
D+16.0
Final polls said
D+5.9
22 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | D+12.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gallup | D+10.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+10.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | OnPoint | D+9.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+9.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Marist College | D+8.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+7.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Big Village | D+7.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | D+5.3 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | Quinnipiac University | D+5.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+5.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 13 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | D+4.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
| 14 | Los Angeles Times | D+4.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
| 15 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+3.0 | 13.0 | ✓ |
| 16 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+2.0 | 14.0 | ✓ |
| 17 | CBS News/The New York Times | D+1.0 | 15.0 | ✓ |
| 18 | The Polling Company Inc. | EVEN | 16.0 | ✗ |
Polls (36)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint | 2006-11-06 | 520 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-11-02 | 917 | D+5.0 | 11 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2006-11-02 | 1086 | D+3.0 | 13 |
| Gallup | 2006-11-02 | 654 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-02 | 625 | D+7.0 | 9 |
| Marist College | 2006-11-02 | 619 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-11-01 | 500 | D+5.0 | 11 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 500 | D+6.0 | 10 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-10-31 | 600 | D+2.0 | 14 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2006-10-30 | 500 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-29 | 500 | D+5.0 | 11 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2006-10-28 | 577 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Big Village | 2006-10-28 | 577 | D+7.0 | 9 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-27 | 600 | D+12.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-26 | 887 | D+5.0 | 11 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 679 | D+5.9 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-25 | 500 | EVEN | 16 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2006-10-24 | 800 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2006-10-22 | 314 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2006-10-22 | 552 | D+1.0 | 15 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-20 | 625 | D+3.0 | 13 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2006-10-18 | 396 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | R+2.3 | 18 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-11 | 500 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-07 | 761 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2006-09-29 | 514 | D+7.0 | 9 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 600 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Gallup | 2006-09-29 | 542 | D+3.0 | 13 |
| Marist College | 2006-09-28 | 460 | R+5.0 | 21 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2006-09-27 | 679 | EVEN | 16 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-26 | 625 | D+3.0 | 13 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2006-09-24 | 404 | D+1.0 | 15 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | D+5.7 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-22 | 500 | R+1.0 | 17 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2006-09-20 | 391 | R+6.0 | 22 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-09-15 | 688 | R+3.0 | 19 |