Actual result
D+41.3
Final polls said
D+31.4
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+29.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+42.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+29.0 | 12.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | D+20.7 | 20.6 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2006-11-01 | 503 | D+42.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 679 | D+20.7 | 21 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | D+27.2 | 14 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2006-09-27 | 664 | D+46.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | D+25.4 | 16 |