Actual result
D+12.3
Final polls said
D+11.2
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+12.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | D+12.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | D+12.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | CBS News/The New York Times | D+13.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Big Village | D+11.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+11.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+9.4 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Los Angeles Times | D+8.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Zogby Analytics | D+7.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Opinion Consultants | D+7.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 11 | YouGov | D+18.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+6.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 13 | Columbus Dispatch | D+24.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 14 | University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics | R+0.2 | 12.5 | ✗ |
Polls (30)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-04 | 436 | D+12.0 | 0 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2006-11-03 | 1008 | D+12.0 | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 1003 | D+18.0 | 6 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2006-10-29 | 1541 | D+24.0 | 12 |
| Big Village | 2006-10-28 | 542 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-27 | 600 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 678 | D+1.4 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-24 | 563 | D+20.0 | 8 |
| Opinion Consultants | 2006-10-24 | 800 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-24 | 500 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2006-10-22 | 507 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-19 | 625 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2006-10-13 | 1020 | D+13.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | D+4.3 | 8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-12 | 901 | D+12.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-12 | 500 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2006-10-11 | 526 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-10 | 515 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-03 | 500 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-30 | 500 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 600 | EVEN | 12 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-26 | 625 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | D+4.1 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-19 | 490 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2006-09-15 | 1791 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-09-14 | 876 | D+1.0 | 11 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-13 | 500 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2006-09-12 | 639 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics | 2006-09-09 | 477 | R+0.2 | 13 |