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Toss-up · 2006 Senate
Pennsylvania Senate
In the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race, Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) won by about 17 points.
Actual result
D+17.4
Final polls said
D+11.8
14 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | D+17.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+16.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Temple University Institute for Survey Research | D+16.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+16.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+15.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Pew Research Center | D+21.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+13.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+13.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | West Chester University | D+11.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Quinnipiac University | D+10.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+8.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | Zogby Analytics | D+8.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 13 | Victory Research | D+4.0 | 13.4 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
27 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Victory Research2006-11-0413
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2006-11-014
YouGov2006-10-311
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion2006-10-319
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2006-10-284
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race?
Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) won, by about 17.4 points (D+17.4).
When was the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate election held?
It was held in November 2006.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.