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Toss-up · 2006 Senate
Pennsylvania Senate
In the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race, Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) won by about 17 points.
Actual result
D+17.4
Final polls said
D+11.8
14 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | D+17.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+16.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Temple University Institute for Survey Research | D+16.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+16.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+15.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Pew Research Center | D+21.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+13.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+13.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | West Chester University | D+11.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Quinnipiac University | D+10.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+8.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | Zogby Analytics | D+8.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 13 | Victory Research | D+4.0 | 13.4 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
27 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Victory Research2006-11-0413
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2006-11-014
YouGov2006-10-311
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion2006-10-319
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2006-10-284
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race?
Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) won, by about 17.4 points (D+17.4).
When was the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate election held?
It was held in November 2006.