Actual result
D+17.4
Final polls said
D+11.8
14 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | D+17.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+16.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Temple University Institute for Survey Research | D+16.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+16.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+15.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Pew Research Center | D+21.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+13.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+13.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | West Chester University | D+11.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Quinnipiac University | D+10.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | D+8.5 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+8.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 13 | Zogby Analytics | D+8.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 14 | Victory Research | D+4.0 | 13.4 | ✓ |
Polls (27)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Research | 2006-11-04 | 800 | D+4.0 | 13 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 1005 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2006-10-31 | 507 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-28 | 500 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2006-10-27 | 626 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-27 | 600 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-26 | 933 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 755 | D+8.9 | 8 |
| West Chester University | 2006-10-24 | 601 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-20 | 625 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| Temple University Institute for Survey Research | 2006-10-20 | 698 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| GQR | 2006-10-16 | 600 | D+17.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-15 | 500 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | D+8.1 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-06 | 500 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2006-10-05 | 511 | D+5.0 | 12 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 600 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2006-09-27 | 679 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-24 | 625 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | D+6.0 | 11 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-09-21 | 933 | D+14.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-20 | 500 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| GQR | 2006-09-18 | 414 | D+14.0 | 3 |
| Temple University Institute for Survey Research | 2006-09-17 | 666 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| Pew Research Center | 2006-09-15 | 1201 | D+21.0 | 4 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2006-09-15 | 604 | D+7.0 | 10 |