Actual result
R+2.7
Final polls said
R+3.0
19 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gallup | R+3.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+3.3 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | OnPoint | R+1.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Middle Tennessee State University | R+1.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | R+5.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | Los Angeles Times | R+5.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Big Village | R+8.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Zogby Analytics | R+10.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 11 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+5.0 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 12 | EMC Research | D+6.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 13 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+12.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
Polls (31)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint | 2006-11-06 | 677 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-04 | 679 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-11-04 | 500 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2006-11-03 | 676 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-02 | 625 | R+12.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-11-02 | 500 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 502 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-30 | 500 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2006-10-28 | 541 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2006-10-27 | 560 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-27 | 600 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| EMC Research | 2006-10-27 | 600 | D+6.0 | 9 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 679 | R+1.2 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-23 | 500 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-23 | 780 | EVEN | 3 |
| EMC Research | 2006-10-23 | 800 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2006-10-22 | 515 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-19 | 625 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-19 | 500 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | R+7.4 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-11 | 500 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-08 | 539 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| EMC Research | 2006-10-03 | 800 | D+7.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-30 | 500 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 600 | EVEN | 3 |
| Gallup | 2006-09-29 | 598 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Middle Tennessee State University | 2006-09-25 | 549 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-25 | 625 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | R+5.2 | 2 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2006-09-22 | 605 | D+6.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-10 | 638 | D+3.0 | 6 |