Actual result
R+25.6
Final polls said
R+28.9
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+29.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+26.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+29.3 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | R+18.9 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+36.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 1004 | R+36.0 | 10 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 1081 | R+18.9 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-24 | 1003 | R+34.5 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-23 | 500 | R+26.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | R+32.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | R+23.5 | 2 |