Actual result
D+0.4
Final polls said
D+1.0
15 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | EVEN | 0.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | YouGov | EVEN | 0.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+0.8 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | D+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+2.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Los Angeles Times | D+3.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Gallup | R+3.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 9 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | R+3.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 10 | Big Village | D+4.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+4.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
Polls (28)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-04 | 741 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-02 | 625 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2006-11-02 | 711 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-11-02 | 500 | EVEN | 0 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 802 | EVEN | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-29 | 500 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Big Village | 2006-10-28 | 597 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2006-10-28 | 811 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-27 | 600 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2006-10-26 | 453 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-25 | 500 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 679 | D+3.8 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-23 | 613 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2006-10-22 | 385 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-18 | 625 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-12 | 500 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2006-10-11 | 679 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2006-10-11 | 1004 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-30 | 500 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| Gallup | 2006-09-29 | 597 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 600 | R+11.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-27 | 612 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-25 | 628 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-25 | 625 | EVEN | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | R+5.6 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-11 | 467 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-11 | 500 | R+7.0 | 7 |