Actual result
D+37.8
Final polls said
D+37.1
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+28.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+45.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+28.4 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+27.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Wisconsin Survey Center | D+57.0 | 19.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | D+9.2 | 28.6 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 502 | D+45.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 679 | D+9.2 | 29 |
| University of Wisconsin Survey Center | 2006-10-22 | 266 | D+57.0 | 19 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | D+15.6 | 22 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | D+13.3 | 25 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-14 | 500 | D+27.0 | 11 |