Actual result
D+11.3
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | D+6.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+4.1 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+4.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2008-10-29 | 400 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2008-10-01 | 400 | D+2.0 | 9 |
| GQR | 2008-09-22 | 450 | D+6.0 | 5 |