Actual result
D+2.8
Final polls said
D+2.2
30 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+2.6 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | D+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | GfK Group | D+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | American Research Group | D+4.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | D+4.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 10 | EMC Research | D+4.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | Zogby Analytics | D+1.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | FTI Consulting | D+1.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | InsiderAdvantage | D+1.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 14 | Big Village | D+5.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 15 | Suffolk University | D+5.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 16 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+1.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 17 | Datamar Analytics | R+1.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 18 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | D+7.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 19 | Los Angeles Times | D+9.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
Polls (63)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-11-02 | 691 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-11-02 | 678 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-11-02 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 1717 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Datamar Analytics | 2008-11-01 | 657 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-31 | 600 | D+1.3 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-30 | 1773 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-30 | 600 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Datamar Analytics | 2008-10-29 | 995 | EVEN | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-28 | 625 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2008-10-26 | 601 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2008-10-26 | 639 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-26 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-25 | 600 | EVEN | 3 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 1001 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-25 | 747 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-10-25 | 408 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-25 | 709 | D+0.3 | 3 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-10-25 | 600 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Datamar Analytics | 2008-10-25 | 630 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| GfK Group | 2008-10-24 | 600 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-24 | 1435 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-22 | 562 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 2008-10-21 | 800 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-20 | 625 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-19 | 1252 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-19 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-18 | 1158 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-18 | 1433 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-16 | 553 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-13 | 612 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-13 | 765 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-12 | 1000 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| EMC Research | 2008-10-12 | 700 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Datamar Analytics | 2008-10-12 | 1328 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-11 | 1231 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-08 | 700 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-05 | 1000 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-05 | 625 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2008-09-30 | 619 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-30 | 532 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-09-29 | 600 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-29 | 770 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-09-28 | 836 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-28 | 500 | EVEN | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-27 | 599 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-27 | 941 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-24 | 600 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-09-24 | 1161 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-24 | 700 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-21 | 500 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-09-17 | 625 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-16 | 707 | R+6.0 | 9 |
| SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 2008-09-16 | 800 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-16 | 600 | EVEN | 3 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-15 | 907 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-14 | 500 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-09-13 | 402 | EVEN | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-09-11 | 995 | R+10.0 | 13 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-10 | 511 | R+8.0 | 11 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-07 | 500 | EVEN | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-09-07 | 1032 | R+7.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-06 | 968 | R+5.0 | 8 |