Actual result
D+16.5
Final polls said
D+14.4
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+16.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Selzer & Co. | D+16.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | D+16.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+14.5 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | D+13.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+13.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | EPIC-MRA | D+12.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Big Ten | D+22.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+10.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Marist College | D+9.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | FTI Consulting | D+8.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | GQR | D+7.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 13 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+7.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 14 | Big Village | D+6.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 15 | Zogby Analytics | D+6.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 16 | Rossman Group | D+5.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 17 | American Research Group | D+2.0 | 14.5 | ✓ |
| 18 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | EVEN | 16.5 | ✗ |
| 19 | InsiderAdvantage | R+1.0 | 17.5 | ✗ |
| 20 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | R+3.0 | 19.5 | ✗ |
Polls (32)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2008-11-03 | 400 | D+16.0 | 0 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2008-10-30 | 616 | D+16.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-29 | 1532 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2008-10-28 | 600 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-28 | 500 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2008-10-27 | 600 | D+12.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 973 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Big Ten | 2008-10-21 | 562 | D+22.0 | 6 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2008-10-21 | 400 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-10 | 1043 | D+16.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-07 | 500 | D+16.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-05 | 1122 | D+18.0 | 2 |
| Rossman Group | 2008-10-03 | 600 | D+5.0 | 11 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-30 | 731 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2008-09-23 | 602 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| GQR | 2008-09-23 | 760 | D+7.0 | 9 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-22 | 755 | D+6.0 | 10 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2008-09-21 | 400 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2008-09-21 | 500 | D+7.0 | 9 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-09-20 | 625 | EVEN | 16 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-09-20 | 406 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-18 | 600 | D+2.0 | 14 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-09-18 | 1364 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 2008-09-17 | 600 | R+3.0 | 19 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2008-09-16 | 602 | D+1.0 | 15 |
| Big Ten | 2008-09-16 | 628 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| Marist College | 2008-09-16 | 599 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-09-11 | 742 | D+6.0 | 10 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-10 | 503 | R+1.0 | 17 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-10 | 700 | D+5.0 | 11 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-08 | 966 | D+3.0 | 13 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-06 | 1147 | D+1.0 | 15 |