Actual result
D+0.3
Final polls said
D+1.7
28 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | InsiderAdvantage | EVEN | 0.3 | ✗ |
| 2 | American Research Group | D+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Tyson Group | D+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | D+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+1.2 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Zogby Analytics | R+1.0 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+1.0 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 9 | SurveyUSA | R+1.0 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 10 | GfK Group | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | Marshall Marketing | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+3.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 13 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+3.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 14 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 15 | FTI Consulting | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 16 | Big Village | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 17 | Elon University | D+7.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
Polls (54)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-11-02 | 585 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2008-11-02 | 600 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-11-02 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 2100 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-11-01 | 682 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-11-01 | 600 | R+1.6 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-29 | 700 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Elon University | 2008-10-29 | 797 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-29 | 641 | EVEN | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-28 | 625 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| The Tyson Group | 2008-10-28 | 600 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-26 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-25 | 600 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 955 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-25 | 667 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-10-25 | 402 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-25 | 1038 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-24 | 625 | EVEN | 0 |
| GfK Group | 2008-10-24 | 601 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-23 | 700 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-20 | 644 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Marshall Marketing | 2008-10-20 | 500 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-19 | 700 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-19 | 698 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| The Tyson Group | 2008-10-19 | 600 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-19 | 627 | EVEN | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-19 | 921 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-18 | 1200 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-13 | 474 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-12 | 1000 | EVEN | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-11 | 831 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-11 | 1196 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-08 | 700 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | 2008-10-08 | 744 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| The Tyson Group | 2008-10-07 | 600 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Marshall Marketing | 2008-10-06 | 500 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-05 | 617 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-05 | 666 | EVEN | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-04 | 1202 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-30 | 700 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-28 | 600 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-28 | 1041 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-23 | 500 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| The Tyson Group | 2008-09-19 | 600 | EVEN | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-18 | 700 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-18 | 1060 | EVEN | 0 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-15 | 910 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-15 | 600 | R+11.0 | 11 |
| Elon University | 2008-09-15 | 411 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-09-11 | 635 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-09 | 626 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| The Tyson Group | 2008-09-08 | 600 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-07 | 671 | R+20.0 | 20 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2008-09-06 | 605 | R+3.0 | 3 |