Actual result
D+15.6
Final polls said
D+17.0
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+17.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+15.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+15.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | D+17.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+17.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+18.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+21.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+10.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | American Research Group | D+9.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Quinnipiac University | D+23.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-11-02 | 500 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2008-10-30 | 801 | D+21.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-29 | 632 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2008-10-26 | 852 | D+18.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 777 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2008-10-20 | 628 | D+17.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-18 | 1184 | D+23.0 | 7 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2008-10-17 | 723 | D+17.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-11 | 551 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-07 | 500 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2008-10-02 | 790 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-27 | 611 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-20 | 600 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-16 | 500 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2008-09-13 | 589 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-09-12 | 1187 | D+3.0 | 13 |
| Marist College | 2008-09-07 | 584 | D+3.0 | 13 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2008-09-06 | 872 | D+6.0 | 10 |