Actual result
D+15.1
Final polls said
D+8.7
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+17.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+10.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+10.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+9.4 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+8.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | American Research Group | D+7.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | FTI Consulting | D+7.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Zogby Analytics | EVEN | 15.1 | ✗ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-30 | 664 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-29 | 1537 | D+17.0 | 2 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2008-10-29 | 1002 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-28 | 500 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 457 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-19 | 534 | EVEN | 15 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-13 | 700 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-12 | 568 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-11 | 532 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-01 | 500 | D+5.0 | 10 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2008-10-01 | 659 | D+5.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-29 | 698 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-18 | 1037 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-15 | 671 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-15 | 600 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-09-13 | 402 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-09-11 | 477 | D+2.0 | 13 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-08 | 700 | R+2.0 | 17 |