Actual result
D+28.8
Final polls said
D+29.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+27.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+29.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+27.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Siena College | D+31.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Marist College | D+36.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+20.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+20.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | American Research Group | D+17.0 | 11.8 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-27 | 633 | D+29.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 988 | D+20.0 | 9 |
| Marist College | 2008-10-21 | 527 | D+36.0 | 7 |
| Siena College | 2008-10-20 | 721 | D+31.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-14 | 500 | D+20.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-11 | 551 | D+33.0 | 4 |
| Siena College | 2008-09-29 | 631 | D+22.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-23 | 668 | D+19.0 | 10 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-15 | 600 | D+17.0 | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-15 | 500 | D+13.0 | 16 |
| Siena College | 2008-09-09 | 626 | D+5.0 | 24 |