Actual result
D+4.6
Final polls said
D+5.2
30 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+4.5 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Los Angeles Times | D+5.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | D+6.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Columbus Dispatch | D+6.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+6.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | GQR | D+6.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | D+3.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | American Research Group | D+3.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | Quinnipiac University | D+7.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | Big Village | D+7.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | FTI Consulting | D+7.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 13 | GfK Group | D+7.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 14 | Zogby Analytics | D+2.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 15 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 16 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 17 | Suffolk University | D+9.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 18 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | EVEN | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 19 | InsiderAdvantage | D+10.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 20 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+2.0 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 21 | Big Ten | D+12.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 22 | Ohio University | D+16.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
Polls (67)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-11-02 | 687 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-11-02 | 1000 | EVEN | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-11-01 | 660 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-11-01 | 605 | D+6.3 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 1208 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2008-10-31 | 1221 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-30 | 1574 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-28 | 625 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-26 | 648 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2008-10-26 | 2164 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2008-10-26 | 644 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-26 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-25 | 600 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 990 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-25 | 779 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-10-25 | 404 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2008-10-25 | 661 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-24 | 1425 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| GfK Group | 2008-10-24 | 607 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-22 | 408 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-22 | 993 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Big Ten | 2008-10-21 | 564 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2008-10-20 | 886 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-20 | 737 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-19 | 991 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-19 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-18 | 1360 | D+14.0 | 9 |
| Ohio University | 2008-10-18 | 611 | D+16.0 | 11 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-10-18 | 600 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-16 | 625 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-14 | 700 | EVEN | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-12 | 575 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-12 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-11 | 1018 | R+5.0 | 10 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-09 | 509 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Marist College | 2008-10-07 | 771 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2008-10-06 | 847 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-06 | 600 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-05 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-05 | 749 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2008-10-04 | 772 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-04 | 1239 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| GQR | 2008-09-30 | 600 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-29 | 512 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-28 | 693 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2008-09-28 | 2262 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-09-28 | 825 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-28 | 500 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-09-24 | 1203 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-23 | 700 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-22 | 545 | EVEN | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-21 | 500 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| Big Ten | 2008-09-16 | 619 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-15 | 913 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2008-09-14 | 869 | R+6.0 | 11 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-14 | 500 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-13 | 692 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| Marist College | 2008-09-13 | 565 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-09-13 | 400 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-13 | 1077 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-09-12 | 600 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-12 | 600 | R+6.0 | 11 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-09-11 | 847 | R+6.0 | 11 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-10 | 503 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-09-07 | 1367 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2008-09-07 | 775 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-07 | 600 | R+7.0 | 12 |