Actual result
D+10.3
Final polls said
D+9.5
28 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | D+10.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | D+10.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Big Ten | D+10.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | FTI Consulting | D+10.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+9.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | InsiderAdvantage | D+9.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Temple University Institute for Survey Research | D+9.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | Big Village | D+12.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | GfK Group | D+12.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | D+12.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | Public Policy Polling | D+8.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+8.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 13 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+13.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 14 | YouGov | D+7.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 15 | Marist College | D+14.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 16 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+6.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 17 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+6.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 18 | American Research Group | D+6.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 19 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+4.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Polls (54)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-11-02 | 657 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-11-02 | 682 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-11-01 | 602 | D+13.7 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 1529 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-11-01 | 500 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2008-10-31 | 617 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-30 | 600 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-30 | 1493 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-30 | 700 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-30 | 500 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-27 | 625 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-27 | 500 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2008-10-26 | 713 | D+14.0 | 4 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2008-10-26 | 610 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-26 | 588 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 1009 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-25 | 768 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-24 | 1364 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| GfK Group | 2008-10-24 | 607 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Temple University Institute for Survey Research | 2008-10-23 | 761 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2008-10-23 | 709 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Big Ten | 2008-10-21 | 566 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2008-10-21 | 608 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-21 | 620 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-18 | 1425 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-10-18 | 412 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2008-10-17 | 700 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2008-10-16 | 599 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-12 | 516 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-11 | 737 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2008-10-11 | 580 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2008-10-07 | 757 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2008-10-06 | 600 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-06 | 700 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-05 | 653 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2008-10-01 | 550 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-28 | 500 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-09-28 | 832 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2008-09-26 | 581 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2008-09-25 | 767 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-09-24 | 1138 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-23 | 700 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-23 | 1094 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-22 | 730 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-21 | 600 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-21 | 500 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-09-20 | 406 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-09-17 | 625 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Big Ten | 2008-09-16 | 608 | EVEN | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-14 | 500 | EVEN | 10 |
| Marist College | 2008-09-13 | 535 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-09-11 | 701 | R+5.0 | 15 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-09-07 | 1001 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-07 | 500 | D+2.0 | 8 |