Toss-up · 2008 President

Pennsylvania President

In the 2008 Pennsylvania President race, Barack Obama (D) won by about 10 points.

Actual result

D+10.3

Final polls said

D+9.5

28 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Zogby Analytics	D+10.0	0.3	✓
2	Quinnipiac University	D+10.0	0.3	✓
3	Big Ten	D+10.0	0.3	✓
4	FTI Consulting	D+10.0	0.3	✓
5	SurveyUSA	D+9.0	1.3	✓
6	InsiderAdvantage	D+9.0	1.3	✓
7	Temple University Institute for Survey Research	D+9.0	1.3	✓
8	Big Village	D+12.0	1.7	✓
9	GfK Group	D+12.0	1.7	✓
10	Public Policy Polling	D+8.0	2.3	✓
11	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	D+8.0	2.3	✓
12	Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research	D+13.0	2.7	✓
13	YouGov	D+7.0	3.3	✓
14	Marist College	D+14.0	3.7	✓
15	Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)	D+6.0	4.3	✓
16	Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion	D+6.0	4.3	✓
17	American Research Group	D+6.0	4.3	✓
18	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	D+4.0	6.3	✓