Actual result
R+9.0
Final polls said
R+9.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+8.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+8.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | R+11.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+11.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+12.4 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | R+20.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | American Research Group | R+22.0 | 13.0 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-28 | 654 | R+8.0 | 1 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2008-10-27 | 400 | R+11.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 728 | R+8.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-20 | 500 | R+11.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-12 | 561 | R+14.0 | 5 |
| Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | 2008-10-08 | 617 | R+20.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-21 | 690 | R+19.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-18 | 500 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-16 | 600 | R+22.0 | 13 |