Actual result
R+15.1
Final polls said
R+10.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+14.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Star Opinion Research | R+15.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+14.5 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+16.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+12.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Middle Tennessee State University | R+12.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+9.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | American Research Group | R+23.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 653 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-16 | 500 | R+12.0 | 3 |
| North Star Opinion Research | 2008-10-14 | 600 | R+15.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-29 | 500 | R+19.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-09-23 | 625 | R+16.0 | 1 |
| Middle Tennessee State University | 2008-09-21 | 635 | R+12.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-18 | 600 | R+23.0 | 8 |