Actual result
R+11.8
Final polls said
R+10.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+11.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+10.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+13.7 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | R+19.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 972 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-21 | 500 | R+10.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-19 | 550 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-07 | 600 | R+19.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-29 | 500 | R+9.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-15 | 600 | R+21.0 | 9 |