Actual result
D+6.3
Final polls said
D+6.3
24 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+6.4 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+6.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | D+6.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | InsiderAdvantage | D+6.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | D+7.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+7.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | GfK Group | D+7.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+8.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+4.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | American Research Group | D+4.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 11 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 13 | FTI Consulting | D+4.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 14 | Big Village | D+9.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 15 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | D+9.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 16 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+3.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 17 | Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs | D+11.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 18 | Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | D+1.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 19 | Suffolk University | D+12.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
Polls (54)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-11-02 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-11-02 | 690 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2008-11-02 | 600 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-11-01 | 604 | D+6.1 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-11-01 | 1557 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-31 | 672 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-28 | 625 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2008-10-26 | 671 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-26 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-25 | 600 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 772 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-25 | 721 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-10-25 | 404 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-25 | 671 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2008-10-24 | 784 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| GfK Group | 2008-10-24 | 601 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2008-10-23 | 614 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-22 | 1231 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs | 2008-10-21 | 817 | D+11.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-20 | 625 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-20 | 647 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-19 | 922 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-18 | 652 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-16 | 700 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-13 | 698 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2008-10-13 | 500 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-12 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-11 | 872 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | 2008-10-08 | 665 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-06 | 917 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-05 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-10-04 | 600 | D+12.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-04 | 666 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-09-30 | 625 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-29 | 684 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-29 | 436 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-28 | 600 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-28 | 500 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-25 | 700 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-21 | 500 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2008-09-20 | 698 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-20 | 716 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-09-19 | 625 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-19 | 600 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-17 | 502 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-14 | 500 | EVEN | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-13 | 1090 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-09-13 | 409 | R+7.0 | 13 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-13 | 732 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2008-09-12 | 500 | R+9.0 | 15 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-09-11 | 689 | R+6.0 | 12 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-08 | 920 | R+6.0 | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-07 | 500 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-06 | 717 | R+2.0 | 8 |