Actual result
D+13.9
Final polls said
D+11.3
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+14.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | FTI Consulting | D+13.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Institute for Survey and Policy Research | D+15.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+12.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Big Ten | D+12.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+12.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+16.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Quinnipiac University | D+17.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | University of Wisconsin Survey Center | D+10.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Big Village | D+8.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+7.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | American Research Group | D+5.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
Polls (20)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-28 | 667 | D+16.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 976 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| University of Wisconsin Survey Center | 2008-10-25 | 359 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-23 | 500 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Big Ten | 2008-10-21 | 584 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-18 | 641 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-10-18 | 405 | D+13.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-16 | 625 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| University of Wisconsin Survey Center | 2008-10-13 | 400 | D+13.0 | 1 |
| University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Institute for Survey and Policy Research | 2008-10-12 | 352 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-10 | 1201 | D+17.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-06 | 500 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-05 | 1081 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-05 | 859 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-05 | 672 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-20 | 600 | D+5.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-09-18 | 1313 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Big Ten | 2008-09-16 | 616 | D+1.0 | 13 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-15 | 950 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-13 | 500 | D+2.0 | 12 |