Actual result
D+25.4
Final polls said
D+22.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+23.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer & Co. | D+26.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+26.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+23.6 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+20.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+16.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co. | 2008-10-30 | 616 | D+26.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-28 | 658 | D+26.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 795 | D+20.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-23 | 500 | D+16.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-08 | 692 | D+21.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-25 | 700 | D+14.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-17 | 702 | D+23.0 | 2 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2008-09-09 | 616 | D+19.0 | 6 |