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Toss-up · 2008 Senate
Iowa Senate
In the 2008 Iowa Senate race, Tom Harkin (D) won by about 25 points.
Actual result
D+25.4
Final polls said
D+22.0
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer & Co. | D+26.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+26.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+20.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+16.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Selzer & Co.2008-10-301
SurveyUSA2008-10-281
YouGov2008-10-255
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-10-239
SurveyUSA2008-10-084
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2008 Iowa Senate race?
Tom Harkin (D) won, by about 25.4 points (D+25.4).
When was the 2008 Iowa Senate election held?
It was held in November 2008.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.