Actual result
D+28.8
Final polls said
D+22.4
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+23.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+25.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+23.8 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | FTI Consulting | D+34.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+23.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | D+22.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Selzer & Co. | D+21.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | EPIC-MRA | D+18.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co. | 2008-10-30 | 616 | D+21.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-29 | 1532 | D+22.0 | 7 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2008-10-27 | 600 | D+18.0 | 11 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 973 | D+23.0 | 6 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2008-10-21 | 400 | D+28.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-07 | 500 | D+25.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-30 | 731 | D+18.0 | 11 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-09-20 | 406 | D+34.0 | 5 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2008-09-16 | 602 | D+28.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-10 | 700 | D+19.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-06 | 1147 | D+15.0 | 14 |