Actual result
EVEN
Final polls said
D+0.2
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+0.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | FTI Consulting | D+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | D+2.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mellman Group | D+2.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | D+4.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | D+4.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 11 | Big Ten | D+6.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+6.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 13 | St. Cloud State University | R+9.0 | 9.0 | ✗ |
Polls (25)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-31 | 669 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2008-10-30 | 933 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-29 | 1050 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-28 | 500 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-27 | 625 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | 2008-10-26 | 418 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 699 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-22 | 500 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Big Ten | 2008-10-21 | 583 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-10-18 | 402 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| St. Cloud State University | 2008-10-18 | 509 | R+9.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-17 | 655 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2008-10-16 | 1049 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-10 | 1019 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-07 | 500 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-05 | 1076 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | 2008-10-04 | 418 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2008-10-01 | 1084 | D+9.0 | 9 |
| University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | 2008-09-30 | 346 | R+9.0 | 9 |
| Mellman Group | 2008-09-30 | 600 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-30 | 725 | R+10.0 | 10 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-09-18 | 1301 | R+7.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-18 | 700 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2008-09-11 | 1106 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-10 | 734 | R+1.0 | 1 |