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Toss-up · 2008 Senate
New Jersey Senate
In the 2008 New Jersey Senate race, Frank R. Lautenberg (D) won by about 14 points.
Actual result
D+14.1
Final polls said
D+16.1
7 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+14.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+14.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+15.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+19.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+20.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Marist College | D+7.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Quinnipiac University | D+22.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
16 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Monmouth University Polling Institute2008-10-305
SurveyUSA2008-10-291
Fairleigh Dickinson University2008-10-266
YouGov2008-10-250
Marist College2008-10-207
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2008 New Jersey Senate race?
Frank R. Lautenberg (D) won, by about 14.1 points (D+14.1).
When was the 2008 New Jersey Senate election held?
It was held in November 2008.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.