Actual result
R+15.3
Final polls said
R+17.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+15.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+15.7 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+16.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+19.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+9.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-28 | 654 | R+19.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 728 | R+16.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-12 | 561 | R+16.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-21 | 690 | R+14.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-18 | 500 | R+9.0 | 6 |