Actual result
R+12.0
Final polls said
R+12.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+12.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+11.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+15.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 972 | R+12.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-21 | 500 | R+15.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-19 | 550 | R+9.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-29 | 500 | R+7.0 | 5 |