Actual result
R+17.4
Final polls said
R+14.3
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+18.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs | R+18.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | R+16.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | R+14.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | R+13.8 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+13.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+13.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | R+12.6 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+12.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+11.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | Clarus Research Group | R+8.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | InsiderAdvantage | R+3.7 | 13.7 | ✓ |
Polls (25)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2009-10-31 | 502 | R+18.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2009-10-31 | 1457 | R+14.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2009-10-29 | 742 | R+13.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2009-10-28 | 625 | R+12.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2009-10-27 | 1000 | R+13.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2009-10-25 | 502 | R+17.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2009-10-25 | 729 | R+15.0 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2009-10-24 | 1206 | R+11.0 | 6 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2009-10-24 | 569 | R+16.0 | 1 |
| Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs | 2009-10-23 | 625 | R+18.0 | 1 |
| Clarus Research Group | 2009-10-18 | 575 | R+8.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2009-10-18 | 595 | R+19.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2009-10-18 | 666 | R+12.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2009-10-12 | 1000 | R+7.0 | 10 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2009-10-10 | 506 | R+13.8 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2009-10-07 | 625 | R+8.0 | 9 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2009-10-06 | 1001 | R+9.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2009-10-03 | 608 | R+11.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2009-09-29 | 500 | R+9.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2009-09-28 | 631 | R+14.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2009-09-27 | 576 | R+5.0 | 12 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2009-09-23 | 602 | R+3.7 | 14 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2009-09-16 | 1003 | R+4.0 | 13 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2009-09-16 | 500 | R+2.0 | 15 |
| Clarus Research Group | 2009-09-12 | 600 | R+5.0 | 12 |