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Toss-up · 2009 Governor
Virginia Governor
In the 2009 Virginia Governor race, Robert Francis McDonnell (R) won by about 17 points.
Actual result
R+17.4
Final polls said
R+14.3
13 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+18.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs | R+18.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | R+16.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | R+14.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | R+13.8 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+13.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+13.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+12.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+11.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Clarus Research Group | R+8.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | InsiderAdvantage | R+3.7 | 13.7 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
25 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2009-10-311
Public Policy Polling2009-10-313
YouGov2009-10-294
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2009-10-285
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2009-10-274
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2009 Virginia Governor race?
Robert Francis McDonnell (R) won, by about 17.4 points (R+17.4).
When was the 2009 Virginia Governor election held?
It was held in November 2009.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.