Actual result
R+11.9
Final polls said
R+11.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | R+11.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+12.7 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+14.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | R+8.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Moore Information Group | R+17.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-28 | 500 | R+14.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-23 | 664 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Moore Information Group | 2010-10-12 | 500 | R+17.0 | 5 |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | 2010-10-05 | 450 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-03 | 500 | R+16.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-07 | 500 | R+22.0 | 10 |