VotePredictor
past elections

Iowa Governor

Chet Culver (D) vs Terry E. Branstad (R)

Actual result
R+9.6
Final polls said
R+9.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.8
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1VotePredictorR+10.81.2
2Selzer & Co.R+12.02.4
3Global Strategy GroupR+6.03.6
4Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)R+18.08.4

Polls (5)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Selzer & Co.2010-10-28805R+12.02
Global Strategy Group2010-10-24600R+6.04
Global Strategy Group2010-10-09600R+8.02
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-09-23500R+18.08
Selzer & Co.2010-09-21550R+19.09