Actual result
R+9.6
Final polls said
R+9.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+10.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Selzer & Co. | R+12.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | R+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+18.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co. | 2010-10-28 | 805 | R+12.0 | 2 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2010-10-24 | 600 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2010-10-09 | 600 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-23 | 500 | R+18.0 | 8 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2010-09-21 | 550 | R+19.0 | 9 |