Actual result
D+0.4
Final polls said
D+5.1
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | EVEN | 0.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+3.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+4.4 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | D+7.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | St. Cloud State University | D+10.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | D+12.0 | 11.6 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-28 | 2058 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-26 | 625 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-24 | 500 | EVEN | 0 |
| University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | 2010-10-23 | 751 | D+12.0 | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-20 | 750 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2010-10-20 | 999 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| St. Cloud State University | 2010-10-16 | 462 | D+10.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-12 | 712 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-06 | 750 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | 2010-09-24 | 750 | D+11.0 | 11 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2010-09-22 | 949 | D+9.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-22 | 500 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-13 | 656 | D+2.0 | 2 |