Actual result
D+27.7
Final polls said
D+23.4
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+23.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+27.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | D+25.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+23.7 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+22.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times | D+35.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Quinnipiac University | D+20.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Marist College | D+19.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Angus Reid Global | D+17.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | D+15.0 | 12.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+14.0 | 13.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | Big Village | D+14.0 | 13.7 | ✓ |
Polls (24)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2010-10-30 | 578 | D+27.0 | 1 |
| Siena College | 2010-10-29 | 603 | D+25.0 | 3 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2010-10-28 | 546 | D+17.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-27 | 544 | D+22.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 826 | D+30.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2010-10-27 | 415 | D+19.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-21 | 672 | D+20.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-19 | 500 | D+14.0 | 14 |
| Marist College | 2010-10-19 | 505 | D+23.0 | 5 |
| Siena College | 2010-10-16 | 647 | D+37.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-12 | 633 | D+26.0 | 2 |
| The New York Times | 2010-10-12 | 927 | D+35.0 | 7 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2010-10-06 | 500 | D+31.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-06 | 627 | D+23.0 | 5 |
| Siena College | 2010-10-03 | 626 | D+24.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-03 | 1141 | D+18.0 | 10 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-03 | 585 | D+14.0 | 14 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-02 | 592 | D+15.0 | 13 |
| Marist College | 2010-09-28 | 591 | D+16.0 | 12 |
| Marist College | 2010-09-21 | 617 | D+19.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-20 | 572 | D+9.0 | 19 |
| Siena College | 2010-09-18 | 801 | D+33.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-09-18 | 751 | D+6.0 | 22 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-16 | 500 | D+16.0 | 12 |