Actual result
R+2.0
Final polls said
R+3.1
16 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Dispatch | R+2.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+3.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Angus Reid Global | R+3.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quinnipiac University | R+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | ccAdvertising | R+3.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | CBS News/The New York Times | R+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | R+3.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Suffolk University | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 13 | Big Village | D+1.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 14 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+1.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 15 | Ipsos | D+6.0 | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 16 | Feldman Group | D+7.0 | 9.0 | ✗ |
Polls (39)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2010-10-30 | 560 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-30 | 1000 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2010-10-29 | 930 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-29 | 1356 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2010-10-28 | 460 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 805 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-27 | 848 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-26 | 750 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2010-10-24 | 1445 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-24 | 613 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-23 | 1000 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-21 | 686 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-19 | 2060 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-17 | 863 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-16 | 1000 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2010-10-16 | 839 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-14 | 1188 | R+10.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-11 | 500 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2010-10-10 | 663 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-09 | 1000 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2010-10-07 | 500 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Suffolk University | 2010-10-05 | 500 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Feldman Group | 2010-10-04 | 600 | D+7.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-02 | 1000 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-01 | 1025 | R+9.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-27 | 500 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2010-09-26 | 600 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-25 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 2010-09-25 | 941 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2010-09-25 | 600 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| Ipsos | 2010-09-24 | 440 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-18 | 1000 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2010-09-18 | 852 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-13 | 750 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-12 | 820 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-12 | 641 | R+12.0 | 10 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-09-11 | 730 | R+17.0 | 15 |
| Feldman Group | 2010-09-11 | 1200 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-11 | 1000 | R+5.0 | 3 |