Actual result
R+6.0
Final polls said
R+8.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+6.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | PSB Research | R+7.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Lake Research Partners | D+3.0 | 9.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | ccAdvertising | R+19.9 | 13.9 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners | 2010-10-13 | 500 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-05 | 442 | R+19.9 | 14 |
| PSB Research | 2010-09-27 | 403 | R+7.0 | 1 |