VotePredictor
past elections

Arizona House

Ann Kirkpatrick (D) vs Paul Gosar (R)

Actual result
R+6.0
Final polls said
R+8.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.2
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1VotePredictorR+6.20.2
2PSB ResearchR+7.01.0
3Lake Research PartnersD+3.09.0
4ccAdvertisingR+19.913.9

Polls (3)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Lake Research Partners2010-10-13500D+3.09
ccAdvertising2010-10-05442R+19.914
PSB Research2010-09-27403R+7.01