Actual result
R+8.8
Final polls said
R+4.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+3.3 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | PSB Research | R+3.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | National Research | R+2.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | ccAdvertising | R+16.1 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+1.0 | 9.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+3.0 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 7 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+7.0 | 15.8 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSB Research | 2010-10-13 | 408 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2010-10-06 | 400 | D+7.0 | 16 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-05 | 442 | R+16.1 | 7 |
| National Research | 2010-10-05 | 400 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2010-09-26 | 400 | D+3.0 | 12 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2010-09-15 | 509 | D+1.0 | 10 |