VotePredictor
past elections

Arizona House

Gabrielle Giffords (D) vs Jesse Kelly (R)

Actual result
D+1.5
Final polls said
R+0.2
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.7
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1ccAdvertisingR+0.21.7
2VotePredictorR+0.72.2

Polls (1)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
ccAdvertising2010-10-05442R+0.22