Actual result
R+4.8
Final polls said
EVEN
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.7
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rossman Group | R+4.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | PSB Research | EVEN | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+1.7 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 4 | National Research | R+13.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | EPIC-MRA | D+6.0 | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+7.0 | 11.8 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 2010-10-25 | 400 | D+7.0 | 12 |
| National Research | 2010-10-20 | 300 | R+13.0 | 8 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2010-10-16 | 400 | D+6.0 | 11 |
| PSB Research | 2010-09-26 | 404 | EVEN | 5 |
| Rossman Group | 2010-09-20 | 300 | R+4.0 | 1 |