Actual result
D+8.7
Final polls said
D+15.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+10.9 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | D+15.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | D+0.5 | 8.2 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | 2010-10-18 | 401 | D+15.0 | 6 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-14 | 2848 | D+0.5 | 8 |
| GQR | 2010-10-05 | 413 | D+13.0 | 4 |